In a significant revelation for dietary science, a pioneering 17-year study of nearly 40,000 Melburnians has uncovered that low carbohydrate, high-fat diets—popular for weight loss—may actually elevate the risk of developing diabetes by an alarming 20 percent. The study, led by Distinguished Professor Barbora de Courten OAM and PhD student Robel Kabthymer from Monash University and RMIT University, has been published in the esteemed journal Diabetes and Metabolic Syndrome.
This extensive research scrutinizes dietary impacts on diabetes risk, particularly focusing on low-carb diets. With diabetes affecting approximately 1.3 million Australians—a number likely underestimated due to undiagnosed cases—the findings hold substantial implications for public health recommendations.
The study utilized data from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS), involving participants aged 40 to 69 who were recruited between 1990 and 1994. Their health was subsequently monitored in two follow-up periods: 1995–1998 and 2003–2007.
Researchers analyzed the correlation between carbohydrate intake and the incidence of type 2 diabetes. The Low Carbohydrate Score (LCD) was calculated based on the percentage of energy derived from carbohydrates, fats, and proteins. The study revealed that individuals whose diets comprised 38 percent carbohydrates faced a 20 percent higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes compared to those whose intake was 55 percent carbohydrates. This heightened risk is attributed to the increased prevalence of obesity among those on low-carb diets.
Professor de Courten emphasized that this study is the first of its kind to assess the long-term effects of low carbohydrate diets on chronic diseases using Australian data. She noted, “While high-carbohydrate diets that are processed and low in fiber can lead to weight gain and increased insulin resistance, existing studies have primarily examined low carbohydrate diets for diabetes management or remission.”
“This study,” she continued, “demonstrates that low carbohydrate intake could potentially heighten the long-term risk of type 2 diabetes through obesity, possibly due to higher fat consumption and reduced fiber intake.”
The findings underscore the necessity of evaluating the quality of carbohydrates, proteins, and fats in one’s diet. A balanced dietary approach, such as the Mediterranean diet—which emphasizes minimally processed carbohydrates rich in fiber, healthy fats, and adequate protein from sources like fish, white meat, and legumes—might offer a more effective strategy for diabetes prevention.
