India’s robust pharmaceutical sector is gearing up to introduce generic weight-loss medications in the UK within weeks, potentially igniting a price competition that may enhance accessibility to these sought-after treatments. Leading this initiative is Bengaluru-based Biocon, which has secured UK approval for its generic version of Novo Nordisk’s Saxenda, an established drug in the GLP-1 class, and plans to initiate sales by November.
Saxenda is closely related to Novo Nordisk’s well-known diabetes medication Ozempic and its weight-loss counterpart Wegovy. In an interview with the Financial Times, Biocon’s CEO Siddharth Mittal refrained from disclosing specific pricing strategies for the generic Saxenda but expressed optimism about reaching annual sales of £18 million in the UK following the expiration of the drug’s patent next month. Mittal anticipates that Biocon’s version will receive EU approval this year and US approval by 2025.
Mittal emphasized the potential for a “huge price war” once generics enter the market, noting a significant demand for these medications at competitive prices. In June, Israeli pharmaceutical company Teva launched a generic form of Victoza, another Novo Nordisk diabetes drug based on liraglutide, the active ingredient in Saxenda, indicating a growing trend in the sector.
Christopher Sharp, an intellectual property lawyer at Pinsent Masons, suggested that the rollout of Saxenda generics could serve as a precursor to the introduction of semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy. He predicted intense competition from generic manufacturers aiming to capitalize on the lucrative GLP-1 market.
Biocon, along with other major Indian generic manufacturers like Cipla, Dr. Reddy’s, and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, is strategically positioned to exploit the impending expiration of Novo Nordisk’s patents. The expiration timeline for semaglutide patents is set to begin in various regions, including Asia, Africa, and the Americas, starting in 2026, with a longer wait in the US until 2030.
The popularity of Wegovy and Ozempic has propelled Novo Nordisk to record sales figures in 2023, with projections suggesting that the global market for GLP-1 medications could surpass $140 billion by 2030, up from under $40 billion in 2023, according to GlobalData.
Experts estimate that the introduction of generic alternatives can lead to a loss of approximately 80% of the original supplier’s market share, with drug prices declining by 20-30%. This trend is already reflected in Novo Nordisk’s Saxenda sales, which fell by 36% in the first half of 2024. Saxenda requires daily injections and has proven less effective than once-weekly options such as Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro.
Novo Nordisk has declined to comment on the situation but is currently focused on ramping up semaglutide production to meet soaring demand in the US and to introduce the drug to new markets. Prashant Nair, a director at Ambit Capital in Mumbai, highlighted that Indian companies could fulfill the manufacturing capacity gap that Novo Nordisk is currently facing, paving the way for growth in emerging markets.
India is poised to become a significant player in the GLP-1 market, which is vital for the country’s leading position in the global generic drug industry. The World Health Organization estimates that 77 million Indian adults suffer from type 2 diabetes, and government health surveys indicate that nearly one in four adults are overweight or obese.
Moreover, the Indian government has announced plans to subsidize the production of diabetes and weight-loss treatments once the patent for semaglutide expires in the country in 2026. Joydeep Ghosh, a partner at Deloitte India, noted the increasing government support for the sector, while Srikanth Mahadevan, also from Deloitte, remarked that while weight-loss drug sales in India currently amount to only a fraction of those in the US, this is expected to change with the introduction of semaglutide treatments, highlighting India’s substantial market potential given its vast patient base.
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